Positions Of Power

Anchorage, 7 July 2024

The aerial bombardments continue through the night, although of course there is no night here at this time of year. The explosions barely register beyond the pounding noise, but it is the thick plumes of smoke that rise high into the sky that are most noticeable. I don't think we've properly seen the sun for a week.

All through the city, cafes and bars appear closed although if you know where to look, many continue to try to operate as normal in underground rooms. But there are huge risks. Last week a Chinese ground penetrating bomb sought out a crowded whisky bar. There were no survivors.

Food is running low for the oil workers trapped in the city. Oil production in Alaska is negligible since Prudhoe Bay fell to Russian forces, who are at this moment advancing southwards. Even if the field restarts production it will be with Russian not Western American workers.

We are all resigned to the fact that it will rest with the Chinese and Russians to resolve this war. What started as an American Civil War, and I think most would agree that this was a direct response to the start of America's self imposed isolation in 2019, has become a fight for America's oil. Neither Western nor Eastern America can muster the soldiers nor the technological muscle to play any significant part of the fight for control of Alaska. Indeed, since the 2023 San Francisco earthquake, Western America have been without a strategic base and seem at the mercy of whichever side has the confidence to invade.

Of course all the money is on China, who are believed to be preparing the largest ever army in the Pacific. If rumours are to be believed, this army consists predominantly of those men who have been unable to find partners, a pool that we estimate at 33 million, a consequence of the years of one child policy.

But we should never underestimate the ability of the Russian army to change the course of a war through strategic alliance and pure cunning. Although significantly smaller than the Chinese army, we may yet see Russia as the kingmaker in this war. And of course although neither side has used nuclear weapons yet, equally neither side will rule this out.

But it is the fight for Alaska that will shape the outcome of the war. What started as a Civil War has become a fight for possession of a country that no longer exists. Alaska is strategic only for the huge volume of oil that it produces. Once this has been resolved we fully expect the war to move to Texas. And satellite images of troop movements suggest that both Russia and China are preparing their invasions.

The consequences for Eastern America if Texas falls cannot be underestimated. Despite the rise of shale gas production, Texas is the single most important strategic producer of oil in the country. Eastern America's hold on Texas looks weaker and weaker as the days pass. Without the foreign currency that this oil brings, it will be hard for the leaders to maintain their hold on power. What secret deals are New York making as we speak?

On the other side of the border Canada maintains its neutral stance and vows to stay out of the war. Asked whether they would be able to work with a state next door controlled by China or Russia, the Canadian spokeswoman suggested that they had good relations with both countries and were in regular dialogue with the leaders. She reiterated that Canada would never allow troops from either country to pass through, and that Canada would vigorously defend its own sovereignty if necessary.

As I write this I have heard that we are now under siege. We will have to start to conserve our food. The water supply has been cut off.